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Now Trump is targeting Canada, everyone else will follow.

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By escalating a crisis that could topple Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump is fueling political chaos in Canada.

As he searches the world for significant second-term victories before even taking office, the president-elect’s bullying of a beleaguered political opponent—whom he disparages as the governor of the 51st state in an insult to America’s devoted northern neighbor—is a sneak peek at his aggressive approach.

Additionally, his readiness to become involved in an ally’s domestic politics should serve as a signal to other governments that are experiencing conflict in countries like France, Germany, and South Korea, where internal divisions and political disarray may make it difficult to fight back.Trump’s threat to levy 25% tariffs on Canadian exports in order to pressure Ottawa to take action on border concerns left Trudeau terrified of a severe recession in the run-up to an election year that would leave him in serious danger.

Additionally, it is an extremely harsh stance toward a country that has close diplomatic, cultural, and familial ties to the United States, is a party to one of the most profitable trading partnerships in the world, and that sent troops to fight for its ally following the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001.

Trudeau is on the verge of

The dramatic resignation of Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland this week may have dealt Trudeau, the already faltering Liberal prime minister, an existential blow. Hours before she was scheduled to present a crucial budget statement in parliament, Freeland delivered an indictment of Trudeau’s leadership.

After continuously falling behind the opposition Conservatives by about 20 points in surveys, the Liberals already appeared doomed in an election that must be conducted by next fall due to simmering policy conflicts between Canada’s two most prominent politicians that had been going on for months.

However, Trump’s tariff strategy sparked a political firestorm within the Canadian cabinet. Longtime Trudeau supporter Freeland effectively accused him of pushing pointless policies that would expose Canada to Trump in a scathing resignation letter.

“Today, our nation faces a formidable obstacle. A program of hardline economic nationalism, including the threat of 25% tariffs, is being pursued by the new US administration. That threat must be taken very seriously,” Freeland wrote. In order to have the reserves we might require for an impending trade war, that entails keeping our fiscal powder dry today. “That entails avoiding expensive political ploys, which we cannot afford and which give Canadians the impression that we are not aware of the seriousness of the situation,” Freeland continued.

Trudeau has lost the trust of a large portion of his parliamentary party and many Canadians after nine years in office. There is a lot of speculation about whether he will resign early in the upcoming year to allow his party to choose a new prime minister and leader, or whether a vote of confidence may topple his minority administration and force an early general election.

According to Matthew Lebo, a visiting professor at McGill University in Montreal, “I wouldn’t say that Trump’s election changed the Canadian government, but he is definitely changing the conversation, what the next election will be about, and this government’s response.” Lebo, who also teaches political science at the University of Western Ontario, continued, “And he’s probably changing the timing of when Justin Trudeau would go.”

It’s hard to imagine how much better this week of political turmoil in Canada could have been for Trump. He injured Trudeau, whom he clearly dislikes and who is viewed in his inner circle as weak, ultra-progressive, and “woke,” and he fired Freeland, with whom he had a falling out when she spearheaded trade negotiations with the US during his first term.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday, saying, “The Great State of Canada is stunned as the Finance Minister resigns, or was fired from her position by Governor Justin Trudeau.” Her actions were completely poisonous and did not help to make agreements that would benefit Canada’s disgruntled population. We shall not miss her!

Trade is a win-or-lose situation with Trump

A great nation’s leader is acting vindictively toward its largest trading partner. However, it aligns with Trump’s perspective that every foreign policy encounter is like a transactional business conflict between two rivals in which only one can prevail.

Additionally, Trump’s strategies seem to be effective. As evidence of Trump’s control in the relationship, Trudeau, for example, hurried to Mar-a-Lago last month. It’s also possible that this heightened tensions between the prime minister and Freeland, who advocated for a more assertive Canadian strategy. Additionally, Trump destroyed the political cohesion north of the border that had previously been essential to Canada’s strategy for dealing with Washington. For instance, Ontario Premier Doug Ford distanced himself from other leaders in other provinces, particularly those in the carbon-rich prairies, by threatening to stop vital energy exports to the United States in response to Trump’s threats.

Trump

“I want to sell our US friends and closest allies around the world more electricity and power.” However, we have that tool in our toolbox,” Ford said Tuesday to Erin Burnett of CNN. Every day, we send down 4.3 million barrels of oil. It wouldn’t go over well if there was a levy on that, which would raise gas prices by $1 per gallon. However, the Progressive Conservative premier of Ontario stated that he would rather collaborate with Trump since the United States and Canada are more powerful when they work together.

Trump is aware that he is in a strong position. Although a full-scale trade war would harm American consumers, Canada would see the most immediate and dire repercussions because the US is the relationship’s most powerful partner.

Even though these problems are insignificant compared to the situation at the US-Mexico border, Trump’s demands that Canada take more action to stop illegal migration and stop the flow of fentanyl across the border have resulted in Ottawa promising hundreds of millions of dollars in investment as well as more border searches and personnel.

However, Trump’s contempt for partnerships that previous presidents fostered over decades and his unwillingness to reach mutually beneficial agreements make it difficult for America’s allies to maintain cordial ties with the US while he is in office.

It’s highly likely that this mindset will intensify during Trump’s second term. Ahead of the planned renegotiation of the USMCA continental trade pact, which he celebrated as a historic victory during his first term but now seeks to amend, he seems to be aiming for significant concessions in the case of Canada and Mexico.

At a press conference in Mar-a-Lago on Monday, the president-elect stated, “We lose a lot of money to Canada, (a) tremendous amount of money.” Canada is being subsidized by us. We’re giving Mexico subsidies. That cannot continue. We can’t allow that to occur, even though I get along well with the people of Canada and Mexico. He continued: “Why are we providing hundreds of billions of dollars to other nations? It’s unfair. It is incorrect.

What Trump means when he says that the US is giving hundreds of billions of dollars to foreign countries is unclear. He might be talking about trade imbalances, which he frequently seems to view as proof that another country is exploiting the US but which actually show how eager American consumers are to purchase things from anywhere in the world as a strong indicator of US economic strength.

Trump’s resolute negotiation stances demonstrate his overwhelming confidence following his election victory. He is speaking for millions of Americans who think that free trade across the world has weakened American industry and enriched corporate elites who have shifted work to low-wage countries elsewhere. A large number of these settlements are located in states that border Canada.

Many Trump supporters blame them for economic blight that has left entire regions behind and produced social suffering, whereas previous US political leaders saw international trade and accords in North America, with China, and with the European Union as forces that spread riches.

However, the reality of trading across continents is similarly complicated. Trade agreements have created a close relationship between supply chains and manufacturing. For example, before being assembled, parts of an automobile may cross the border numerous times. Therefore, US workers and consumers as well as those across the northern and southern borders may suffer from a trade war between the US and Mexico and Canada.

Who will come next?

Trump is already targeting Canada and Mexico, but once he assumes office next month, he will undoubtedly turn his attention to what he views as other unfair commercial ties.

In an attempt to replicate his success in sowing division within Canada, Trump is probably going to try his divide-and-rule approach among European countries. Even though the European Union’s collective trading power protects some of these states, he has a lot of political squabbling on his hands. For months, French President Emmanuel Macron has been enmeshed in a political crisis that he has caused for himself. With elections scheduled for next year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration recently fell. Although the UK no longer enjoys EU protection following Brexit, and Trump’s treatment of Canada is demonstrating that smaller, committed allies cannot expect a break, new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has a sizable majority.

Trump is also motivated to engage in hardball politics since he would undoubtedly prefer to deal with the conservative populists who are vying for power in these nations. When trucker protests converged on Ottawa in 2022, US conservative media praised Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a blunt right-winger by his nation’s standards and a prime minister-in-waiting. During these protests, support for Trump-style populism was evident.

Canadians are getting a preview of what to expect from Trump’s second term as the rhetoric erupts beyond the 49th parallel. The others, however, will soon catch up.

“I believe that Canadians were unaware of the potential differences between a first and second term. “This is going to be a very different four years compared to the first four years,” Lebo stated.

Additionally, I believe that Canadians are only now beginning to understand that and are also unsure about what to do. They will undoubtedly simply search for a different leader than Justin Trudeau and a different party than the Liberals, and they will cling to the notion that a new Canadian administration will prevent Donald Trump from attacking this nation and instead turn his attention elsewhere.

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